11. Ep. #11: The Fed Strikes Back and Hikes Rates Again

Home » 11. Ep. #11: The Fed Strikes Back and Hikes Rates Again


The Fed strikes back against animal spirts and investors front-running the potential of a pivot.

The Fed raised the overnight lending rate once again in a telegraphed move of a 50-basis point increase; The Fed Funds Rate now sits at 4.50%.

This is the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in Fed history, adding all 450 basis points of hikes in 2022.

Rate hiking cycles typically end in a recession or a similar type of financial crisis, and that is exactly what the yield curve is implying.

The entire yield curve at one point has been inverted, including the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year U.S Treasury Bond.

In this episode I discuss what an extremely inverted curve means for the future of the U.S. economy, including the labor market and the housing market.

Of course, we also discuss mortgage rates, which after climbing above 7% for the first time in over two-decades receded back into the low 6% range.

This rally came off the back of a critical recovery in long-duration U.S. Bonds as the 10-year closed the week below 3.50% after reaching the dizzying heights of 4.25% in late October.

Bond prices drive most first-lien mortgage rates, far more than the Fed and their overnight lending rate.

However, rates on 2nd-lien mortgages, especially HELOC’s (Home Equity Line of Credit), are heavily influenced by Fed policies, which I explain in the podcast.

Tune in for this week’s episode to learn more about HELOC interest rates and why the time to consider one is probably now behind you.

I also share where I think 30-year fixed mortgage rates are headed in 2023 – 2024 and I give you the inside scoop on how to access my financial markets “2022 Year in Review”.


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Welcome to the MORTGAGE GURU PODCAST, where your host Jon Kutsmeda covers the topics that matter most to homeowners and real estate investors without the industry jargon.

Each week Jon helps you to look under the hood of the housing market to make sense of the economic factors which drive home prices and mortgage rates so you can make sound financial decisions.

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